Thursday, June 07, 2007

1st Major Candidates To Leave Presidential Campaign?

Here we are still just under a year and a half from the election, and fully 7 months from the first primaries, and the rumbling of departing candidates is already underway.

Listening to the political chatter out there, and viewing the donation/fund raising levels, it seems apparent to me that one major candidate is on his way out....a 2nd may be heading that way.

My pick for 1st out is John McCain. He has picked up too much negative political baggage to win his party's nomination and, at least partially-due the baggage his fund raising is, to be kind, anemic. McCain/Feingold; the gang of 14; the illegal amnesty (I calls em as I sees em!) bill, even if it fails....all contribute to his demise as I see it. He is fading in the polls, and being led by fellow GOP candidates Romney and Giuliani and even falls behind Fred Thompson who has yet to officially announce.

2nd out...and this one will cause some to ask where my reality sits...John Edwards. The man is simply not popular among his own party. That leaves the fact that in most head-to-head races against a GOP candidate he is also sadly lacking. He has, I believe, become his own worst enemy. $400 haircuts, 26,000 square foot mansions, the apparent lack of popularity in his own state...These are not good signs for Edwards.

My analysis is, of course, carefully ignoring several lesser candidates. These folks, including such as Kuchinich and "The Rev" Sharpton, will be hangers-on for as long as they can. Ratings mean nothing to them.

Now let me sit back and see how far off the mark I might be.

Oh, I forgot to mention a time table. Sooooo....McCain out by the end of August, and Edwards fades from the scene sometime in September or October.