Wednesday, April 09, 2008

A "We Really Mean It This Time" Hurricane Projection!

Those pesky folks at Colorado State know, hidden high in the mountains.....are at it again with the Hurricane projections.....

"Current oceanic and atmospheric trends indicate that we will likely have an active Atlantic basin hurricane season," so sayeth none other than the head of the forecast team, William Grey. His projections....are 15 named storms; 8 hurricanes; 4 major hurricanes....and a 69% chance of a hurricane striking the Eastern US coast, including Florida.

However...there is a small problem with this predicted Atlantic coast storm season projected as "well above average!" The problem....the predictions are almost identical to those issued by the same set of mountain-based predictors....for the 2006 & 2007 seasons. Those predictions were wrong. They were high. We have had one hurricane strike the US in two years. That followed the anomolies of 2004 and 2005.

A closer read indicates Grey and his team are really claiming the season will be "well above" the average of the seasons for the past 52 years. Not, however as bad as 2004 & 2005.

In a brief then.....they are predicting almost exactly what they did in 2006 & 2007, but using their 50 year yardstick, are calling it well above average.

Er....I think they are just as clueless as ever about actual hurricanes and what will be. For them the plan seems to be....."proclaim a bad season every year...then eventually we'll be right!"

A Colorado Mountain High!